IntroductionGreetings, Legacy community... Here we go again! After deck techs, the articles I write the most are by far banlist theories, mostly because banlist updates impact the format quite heavily. They're often more relevant than new sets, even (except for Modern sets), because they have a clear purpose. New sets are often full of uncertainty, and we never know what will work or not.This time, we'll get another banlist update pretty fast, so let's go over some theories!Power VacuumsThe last banlist update surprised most of the Legacy community. At the time, Oops was getting a lot of heat, but it made more sense to deal with it in the previous banlist update because it was far more worrying then. When Undercity Informer was actually banned, Oops had already become a little less problematic. When it was a bigger threat, nothing happened, so it made sense to not expect anything when it was a bit less worrying, right?That was not what happened, and it taught us two things. The first is that, though we try our best to get data and analyze it, we can't come close to the numbers Wizards of the Coast has access to from their servers. So, we can try to get a good grasp on the meta and even come somewhat close, but we'll always fail because we simply don't have all the information. This means Wizards of the Coast will often get to a different conclusion than us. They simply have access to more information.The second thing this taught us (and we could already see this in our last banlist reviews) is that there is a significant gap between when they decide to ban something, when they write the first drafts for the banlist announcements, and when they actually release them. Like so, it's easy to see why nothing happened when we thought something would get banned, why Informer was banned when we thought nothing would happen, and why the reasons listed in the banlist announcement for this decision seem to match the meta at the time of the other announcement and not the most recent one.In any case, Oops was hit, and, though it is still part of the meta, it is just one deck among many. This opened a space in the format that was then filled by old and new competitors.The deck that most lost space when Oops was hit was its main predator: Dimir Tempo. This space was eventually filled by Izzet Tempo, which, because of Cori-Steel Cutter, has become the main tempo deck in the format. Trini Tron, at least in online tournaments, is still dominant. In fact, it is dominant enough for us to mention it in our last banlist article as an "archetype to watch". Reanimator, both the Dimir version and the Turbo version (Shallow Grave + Unmask), became the best combo deck in the meta alongside the ever-present Show and Tell lists.The conclusion is that Legacy is pretty diverse right now, but we can still say a few things.Changes and No ChangesIt's weird that we'll get another round of bans so soon because it doesn't seem like enough time has passed for the meta to evolve and for anyone to assess it properly, even more considering Marvel Super Heroes also came out recently. Add that to the fact that Wizards of the Coast also often states that Legacy is a pretty solid format and they don't like changing it as often as they change the other formats. With this in mind, here is what could happen in the next banlist updates:No ChangesConsidering everything we mentioned above, rationally, the most likely scenario for June 29th is that nothing will happen. The format is still adapting to the Undercity Informer ban, and The Fantasticar should change things a bit, as it can put 16 power and haste on the board on turns 1 or 2.No deck is dominating the format nowadays, though Trini Tron is still above average in terms of getting into top 8s. Of course, we must consider that we don't have access to the numbers Wizards of the Coast has, but, from our limited point of view, and considering the last banlist updates, I'd say this is the logical choice.BansBut if reason says No Changes, what about instinct and intuition, that feeling in your stomach that says something will happen, even if it's not obvious or logical? A few details, signs, and voices in your ear whispering fantasies, it all tells me that WotC will do something with Trini Tron. But not for the reasons that we usually see in banlist announcements.If WotC wants to obliterate this deck, the obvious targets are Planar Nexus, the glue that holds this entire thing together, and The One Ring, the card that gives you something to do with the extra mana this deck creates.If any of these two cards left the format, this strategy would be unplayable in competitive settings. This deck would have to go back to a version that would hardly be able to compete with the other decks in the meta.But a ban like this wouldn't just affect this deck. Decks like Mystic Forge Combo and 12-Post would lose the mana advantage Planar Nexus creates. Banning The One Ring wouldn't affect just these decks but also hit Red Stompy pretty heavily, and this deck is already struggling to stay afloat in the current meta. Would Wizards of the Coast want to hit so much all at once?That's what makes me believe Wizards of the Coast will do something else, something that will solve another problem they'll have to face in the nearby future, and all without admitting it. Let's go over some context.All Legacy players know that this format is pretty expensive, considering the many cards from the Reserved List that see play in it, like dual lands, City of Traitors, and Mox Diamond. Some old cards are also often quite expensive because of how rare they are, even though they hardly see any play. Among them, the most popular should be The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale, which usually sees play in Lands. Even then, because these lists only use one copy of this card, this wasn't as big of an issue as it could be.Some time later, Candelabra of Tawnos started popping up as a single copy in Mystic Forge combo, where we could tutor it with Urza's Saga. Similarly, because it was only one copy and hardly irreplaceable, we could also deal with this pretty well.But then Trini Tron comes along with 4 Candelabra. Because this deck saw play primarily on Magic Online and it didn't cost much there, this wasn't an issue. But then it grew and grew, and more players started playing it, and everything started to pile up. And then tabletop players picked it up.That was when the problems started. Candelabra of Tawnos is an incredibly rare card from a set that didn't stay long in circulation. There are only a few copies available in the world. And, obviously, supply and demand mean any copy of it will be pretty expensive considering how sought out and rare it is. So, a card that online costs around 30 dollars started to cost 4,000 dollars in real life! On tabletop, Trini Tron costs just as much as a Vintage deck now!And, because this deck is pretty competitive, the online meta and the tabletop meta drifted further apart. Online, this deck doesn't cost much more than other meta decks. In real life, however, this card often doesn't exist in many places. As the biggest tournaments of the year come closer, many competitive players have started to complain about not being able to use what they believe is the best deck in the format. And all of that piles up.But money has never been a reason to ban a card, and if Wizards of the Coast admits that's the reason they want to ban Candelabra, they'll open a Pandora's box they won't be able to close later. This is when a precedent Wizards of the Coast themselves opened comes along: we can justify a ban on a troublesome card in many ways, including secondary reasons. A fair comparison would be to when Al Capone was arrested for tax evasion because they couldn't get him for his most damning crimes.I can remember a few times Wizards of the Coast banned a card and justified it by stating they wanted to nerf a certain deck but not push it out of the format completely. In Modern, they banned Bridge from Below to not ban Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis, and, more recently, they banned Lotus Field to keep Amulet Titan in the format. In Legacy, Wizards of the Coast banned several cards to try to deal with Reanimator but keep Entomb in the format. But the most glaring example of this idea was Troll of Khazad-dûm.So, I wouldn't be surprised (in fact, I'm sort of expecting it) that, to nerf Trini Tron but not push it completely out of the format, Candelabra of Tawnos will end up banned. This will also come with a bonus: players will no longer complain about this card and how rare it is when the Eternal Weekends come along.Whenever a new banlist update comes along, we must bring up Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student and Flow State. Until they end up banned, this will keep happening, particularly because they're very similar to other cards that were banned. But I don't believe Wizards of the Coast will do this right now. These cards are strong, but they're not the priority.UnbansOne open option, particularly when we don't expect anything to happen, is unbanning something. In the past, Wizards of the Coast stated they don't plan on unbanning anything in Legacy if they're also banning something at the same time, but if they don't ban anything, they could bring something else back.Earthcraft and Hermit Druid always come up when we talk about unbans, and they're the most likely possibilities. Some players are still dreaming about a Deathrite Shaman unban, which I believe is a bit unrealistic. Honestly, a new set has just come out, so I don't see any unbans any time soon.Final WordsTo sum up, reason says nothing will happen in the next banlist update. And I believe this would be the most sensible thing to do. But my intuition is saying Candelabra of Tawnos might leave the format, which will be a way to nerf Trini Tron and, at the same time, avoid future problems.What do you think? Tell us your thoughts in our comment section below.Thank you for reading, and see you next time!
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