Legacy Bans - Possibilities and The Reasons Behind Them!

Greetings, Legacy fans! If there is one thing every MTG player likes almost as much as playing cards (and sometimes they like it even more) is speculating about the future of the game. Considering a new ban announcement is scheduled for December 16th, why don't we polish our crystal ball and try to guess what is going on over at Wizards of the Coast?

Everybody knows - and I've talked about it in several articles - that Psychic Frog has become a big problem in Legacy, and shouldn't last much longer. It was already problematic in August, when Wizards of the Coast posted another ban announcement and cut Grief from this format. Since then, two decks with this scary Frog have become dominant: Frognator (old Dimir Reanimator but with Psychic Frog as an alternative win condition/ a way to go through your opponent's defenses) and Dimir Aggro (basically the old Izzet Delver base but without red - Lightning Bolt is basically useless to deal with other Frogs, and black gives you, besides Psychic Frog itself, Nethergoyf, Thoughtseize, Fatal Push, Barrowgoyf, and many others.)

However, meanwhile, other decks slowly became relevant, too, like Forge Combo, Nadu Midrange, Cephalid Breakfast, Painter, Eldrazi Aggro, Red Stompy, and others. Forge's phenomenal performance at the North American Eternal Weekend, in particular, brought back a certain argument. Maybe banning Frog was a bit of an overreaction, and the format was still adjusting, some said.

Could it be?

We can estimate how much a deck is relevant in a certain format if we take a look at two factors: popularity and efficiency.

In healthy metas, when a deck starts to become more popular, it usually becomes less efficient, considering that, as soon as it starts to stand out, other players start preparing themselves to beat it. They'll either add more cards to their sideboard, or learn how to play against it.

On the other side, when a deck like, for instance, Forge Combo, becomes too efficient, it usually becomes more popular, and, consequently, its win rate goes down: that happens because new players take a while to learn how to play it, and other players, meanwhile, adapt to this new threat, learn how it works, and how to play against it. As a result, in the past, a few of us correctly predicted that Frognator and Dimir Aggro would eventually become the most popular decks in Legacy, and, right afterward, become less efficient.

If we take a look at the numbers of a big tournament like Eternal Weekend, it is clear that Dimir wasn't fantastic; its winrate was barely above 50% and no player took it to the top 8. However, Frognator, despite everything, was still the second-most efficient deck at this tournament. It doesn't seem like Legacy is "adjusting" to it.

It all indicates that Wizards of the Coast will take action on December 16th. But what will they do, exactly?

Historically, the WotC dev team doesn't resort to drastic measures in Legacy. The last ban announcement, for instance, only took out Grief from this format. On the other side, if you look even further back, Psychic Frog meets the same criteria that led them to ban Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer and Dreadhorde Arcanist. This is why I say the Frog will almost certainly be banned on the 16th. That being said, will this be enough?

Honestly, I believe there are several underlying issues in Legacy that are bound to surface as soon as there is a power shift. If I had to bet, though, on what Wizards of the Coast will do, I'd bet they will simply ban the Frog, sweep the other problems under the rug and move on, until it all becomes messed up again. In a Legacy forum, I joked that this new announcement will be a "copy and paste" of the Grief announcement, and they would only change the names of the cards involved. They'd just wash their hands off it.

In a metagame without Psychic Frog, we should see the return of cards like Lightning Bolt (a removal that is bad against it), and Chalice of the Void (which doesn't go with the best removals against it, like Pyroblast, Red Elemental Blast, and Swords to Plowshares). However, a few decks might also become more relevant, like lists with Nadu, Winged Wisdom (as Blasts will see less play), and Doomsday (as this deck currently struggles against Frognator). Eldrazi Aggro and Red Prison will also get a new wind... That is, until combo decks take advantage of the power vacuum to take over. I think this will be the end of the scenario if only Psychic Frog is banned.

Nonetheless, is this really all WotC will do? Let's go a bit further down the rabbit hole.

Nadu was a mistake. Releasing it in Modern was a mistake (it was banned), releasing it in Commander was a mistake (it was banned), and I believe releasing it in Legacy was a mistake (and I truly hope it is banned eventually). If not now, it should be banned in the future.

I believe the WotC team should remove it from this format because of what happened to two cards in the past: Sensei's Divining Top, which was banned from Legacy because it was a real "time drain" (have you ever seen Nadu's triggered abilities being triggered 8 or more times, and then they do it all over again on the next turn?), and Second Sunrise. Second Sunrise was banned from Modern in 2013 because it created incredibly long games, and, while one player would do all the playing, the other would sit and wait until hundreds of abilities resolved.

MTG is a 1v1 game, and, when one of them turns it into solitary, particularly nondeterministic matches (that is, when you're not sure if your opponent will win or not until they finish their play), it is not fun. This game pattern is always unarguably curbed by Wizards of the Coast.

Vexing Bauble took a bit to power up, but, when it finally started seeing play, it became the most popular lock piece (cards that lock down game mechanics) in the format. It pushed aside traditional cards like Chalice of the Void and Defense Grid.

0-cost or alternative cost cards are often crucial to most Legacy decks. Bauble, on the other side, makes many cards unplayable for just 1 mana. So far, so good, despite how powerful it is if we consider its cost.

Then, many combo players realized that most counterspells in this format don't cost mana and Bauble became a way to cut down a path so you can do whatever you want and not be answered. It was also crucial to Forge Combo's success, so that's why I am mentioning it as a possible ban candidate.

Honestly, I don't think WotC will do anything to it - at least not for now.

Psychic Frog might have buffed Reanimator, but this deck was already rising even before it came along. Some players fear it will still dominate Legacy even after the Frog is banned, and that WotC will still have to hit something else in this archetype as a preemptive measure.

The 3 most mentioned options are Reanimate (the most efficient way to bring the dead back to life), Entomb (one of the best unbanned tutors in Legacy), and Troll of Khazad-dûm, which makes this deck incredibly consistent. It is, at the same time, a good target to reanimate and a mana fix in a deck that naturally doesn't play many lands.

My opinion is that Reanimate will always be a problem as long as it is valid; after all, whenever we get a new set, it might cause issues, like it did with Grief. Nonetheless, this is not the case now, and I believe this deck can remain as it is, with no bans, while a new metagame forms.

Forge Combo's success made every Legacy player excited. It is incredibly strong, and the 3 cards above, protected by Vexing Bauble, made it possible for it to prosper. Indeed, it is vulnerable to cards like Null Rod and Collector Ouphe, but can win with them or not as well.

The glue that has made it soar is Glaring Fleshraker, but banning this creature would affect another deck that is a lot healthier for the meta, which is Eldrazi Aggro. The same goes for Kozilek's Command.

The Ring also sees play in other archetypes. I imagine this deck would become less powerful without the Bauble in the meta, and then we could see how it performs overall. Another key card that doesn't see play in other popular archetypes is Grim Monolith, but I don't think it will be banned.

On December 16th, Wizards of the Coast will most likely take Psychic Frog to the shed and axe it, and I don't believe they'll do anything else. I would be (positively) surprised if they banned something else besides the Frog this time. Personally, I believe Nadu, Winged Wisdom and another Forge card, probably Vexing Bauble, should go as well.

In any case, the metagame could expand a lot without this Frog tyrant. We'll have to wait and see if the WotC dev team has something else in store for us!

What do you think? Tell us your thoughts in our comment section below!

Thank you for reading, and see you next time!