Legacy: June 30th Banlist Theories

Greetings, Legacy community! Every three months, it's the same old story: a new banlist update gets closer, and the community starts speculating what could and what will probably leave the format. Of course, each of us wants to see a different meta, and we can't help but discuss which cards weren't banned last time but should have.

This time, we're going to do things a bit differently. Instead of discussing what we would like WotC to address and what they'll probably do, we'll discuss whether it's time to move past a few core concepts and slay some sacrificial lambs.

When WotC effectively created Legacy from Type 1.5 and made a different banlist for it, distinct from Vintage's (formerly known as Type 1) banlist, they set down a few rules for the oldest format in MTG: Vintage would have 4 pillars. That is, the main archetypes would center around 4 specific cards, and WotC would never add them to the restricted list. They were supposed to be the cornerstones of the format.

And they took this very seriously. Many cards eventually died for the sins of these 4 Pillars, particularly Mishra's Workshop. Trinisphere, Chalice of the Void, Thorn of Amethyst, and Lodestone Golem were just a few of the cards they sacrificed to keep Mishra's Workshop in the format. Curiously, though WotC never admitted it, these pillars changed with time (Mana Drain? Never heard of it, but may I introduce you to my best friend, White Plume Adventurer?).

In Vintage, this concept is not that set in stone, but there is a set of cards that can be considered untouchable in Legacy. The blue base of the entire format includes these cards - Force of Will, Brainstorm, and Ponder, and a few extra support cards for Tempo decks - Daze and Wasteland. Many Stompy decks and a few combo lists wouldn't exist without Ancient Tomb, even though it's a bit off in terms of power level. WotC apparently believes it is a Pillar in this format.

Entomb was one of the cards WotC banned when Legacy was born, but, ever since it was unbanned, it became the core of many Reanimator lists alongside another unusually strong card, Reanimate. In Legacy, many other cards are also the core of various archetypes, such as Gaea's Cradle, Dark Depths, Lion's Eye Diamond, Aether Vial, Thassa's Oracle, and Urza's Saga.

While I was researching some data for this article, I stumbled upon a very interesting video. In it, over 30 Legacy content creators gave interviews. They discussed what they would ban or unban in the format, and what they thought WotC would actually do on June 30th.

Some things stood out to me as I watched this group of fairly knowledgeable Legacy players discuss the next banlist. The first is that they mostly hadn't reached a consensus on what WotC should do - some players thought they shouldn't do anything, whereas others wanted radical changes for over 15 cards. Overall, though, some of them shared a few opinions we'll discuss soon.

Another interesting detail that some of them brought up was that the next banlist update after June 30th is just 2 weeks before the main Legacy events in the year, the Eternal Weekend events. So, making complex changes so close to these important dates would be a bit complicated.

As such, this cycle would be their great opportunity to introduce bigger changes to the format and give us time to absorb them. Finally, more than a few of these content creators spoke about how maybe it is time to change one or more Pillars in the format.

Currently, Legacy is a bit weird. On one side, it is still somewhat diverse, and many decks are quite competitive as long as you're ready to face strategies centered around graveyards. On the other side, even after three banlist updates, Dimir Reanimator is still the strongest deck in the format. In fact, on some data tracking websites, its play rate is over 20%. This makes players feel as though WotC failed to deal with it efficiently (but I don't even want to think about how oppressive it would be with Grief, Psychic Frog, and Troll of Khazad-dûm!).

Furthermore, the second-most popular deck in the format, Dimir Tempo, plays mostly the same base as Dimir Reanimator. This means that, even when you're facing different archetypes, you're still facing Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student, Thoughtseize, and Orcish Bowmasters, which can be quite repetitive. Legacy is known for its diversity, but, when most decks use the same 40 to 50 cards, it doesn't feel so diverse.

And, speaking of things that make this format less diverse, a big problem still roams Legacy even now, and its name is Oops! All Spells. Days before I wrote this article, I was discussing these issues on a Legacy forum, and a player stated, "So, Oops is still around, what's the big deal? It isn't even 5% of the meta and its win rate is barely 50%". Other players may say, "Oops isn't an issue because it is terrible against Dimir lists, and these can reign it in". Some even defend it: "Decks with Goblin Charbelcher have always existed and have never been an issue, so why would they be an issue now?"

The problem with these arguments is that they don't consider the big picture - a deck like Oops forces other decks to play Force of Will, considering that, without it, they'll simply be at the mercy of the dice in game 1. If the Oops player begins playing and finds a lethal opening hand even if they mulligan to 4 cards, then you don't even need to look at your opening hand to know you've lost.

"Just use your sideboard to deal with it." - this leads us to another issue. Unlike Goblin Charbelcher and other turn-1 combo decks, like Necrodominance, Oops can not only combo on turn 1 more consistently, but is also more resilient against any cards you could use to stop its game plan. Particularly if you can't protect them with Force of Will. So, Oops seeing play in Legacy definitely makes it less diverse. It practically forces us to play blue decks and also encourages us to play the two most popular decks in the format because they can handle it rather well. And, as Dimir lists become more popular, Oops see less play, it's true, but it still hasn't become completely irrelevant for us, the players.

Add all of this to the fact that, as it is quite fast, it is a great choice for Grinders (players who want to play as many tournaments as possible to get as many rewards as possible), and, naturally, it sees more play online than on tabletop.

Furthermore, we all know WotC often uses Magic Online data to reach conclusions and make decisions because that's where most matches are played. So, you can see why it Oops would be a problem.

As we mentioned above, no one can quite agree on which cards should leave the format, if any of them should at all. However, when we take a closer look at what everyone thinks, a few patterns definitely stand out. The first is that Reanimator is a prime ban target, and the second is that Oops is problematic, if not for its popularity or efficiency, then for its game style. The third is that the Dimir Tempo base is quite strong and will probably dominate the format if WotC doesn't keep a close eye on it. Finally, the fourth opinion a decent number of players share is that WotC should pay attention to a few problematic cards and see how they impact the format, but that they shouldn't ban them straight away.

Firstly, if WotC has to do something at all about Reanimator, then it's almost certain they should do something they usually don't do: ban an old card. The most straightforward answer if they want to nerf Reanimator is to bring the Ban Hammer to Reanimate or Entomb. The question then is what WotC would like to do, after all.

Banning Reanimate, a problematic card, as banning Grief showed us, will keep the Reanimator base intact, which could make us feel just as hopeless as before if this deck is still dominant even after four banlist updates. Indeed, if we can only play 2-mana Reanimates, then we should only be able to play a limited number of game lines, such as a combination of Entomb, Reanimate, and a Cantrip in the first few turns. However, playing Entomb on turn 1 and Animate Dead on turn 2 will still be just as impactful as before. Now, if they ban Entomb, then this deck, as we know it, will be completely pushed out of the format. Of course, we have other ways to explore this strategy and bring back monstrous creatures to our board, but we'd have to rebuild this archetype from scratch and test it quite extensively to refine it.

As for Oops, WotC could ban one or two of its enablers (Balustrade Spy and Undercity Informer, for instance). However, from personal experience, banning just one of them won't prevent us from playing this deck in a similar way with Beseech the Mirror, though it will be more inconsistent. Other cards they could hit to make this combo less efficient (but playable) are Dread Return and Thassa's Oracle. However, if WotC bans these cards, they'll end up impacting other decks, like Cephalid, Dredge, and Doomsday.

As for the Dimir Tempo base, I don't believe WotC should do something straight away, but some players brought up banning Daze again. This idea is as old as Legacy itself and occasionally comes up again. Another suggestion was banning Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student for nearly the same reasons they banned Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer and Dreadhorde Arcanist for.

Finally, we could make a few arguments to convince WotC to watch cards like Nadu, Winged Wisdom, The One Ring, Orcish Bowmasters, and, considering the recent rule change, Urza's Saga as well. None of these cards is oppressive in Legacy right now, but we can't be sure of what they'll do after this next banlist update.

Naturally, we can't discuss new bans without considering which cards WotC could unban, though they don't do this often.

Mana Drain has never seen the light of day in Legacy. If WotC ever unbanned it, it could end up putting control decks back at the top. It was once a pillar in Vintage, but it no longer sees play. In any case, it could be an interesting addition to Legacy.

Deathrite Shaman was once one of the most beloved creatures in the format. It was also incredibly powerful for a 1-drop. Its dominance eventually led to its ban, but now we can argue that Legacy's current power level can accommodate it. It could balance graveyard-based strategies if it sees play in the main deck.

If Oops can do whatever it wants in Legacy, then Hermit Druid, a very vulnerable combo piece, shouldn't be banned still. Unbanning it could be a way to make up for Oops players if WotC actually decides to ban its enablers.

Troll of Khazad-dûm, just like other Lord of the Rings land-cyclers, brought a cool dynamic to Legacy, but it was punished by a decision that could have targeted Entomb. If they ban Entomb, then the Troll could return and enable new Reanimator versions or see play in decks like Monoblack Aggro.

Earthcraft also never saw play in Legacy and could come back, just like Mind's Desire did. You can probably find many combos in the format that are more efficient than this enchantment, and it could inspire a new archetype.

But what about WotC? Are they ready to shake up the format? Or will they simply put a Band-Aid on a deck and delay dealing with all their problems until the next banlist update?

Considering the last updates, they will probably go for the second option, though I will be gladly surprised if they don't.

If I had to guess, I'd bet they will only remove Reanimate from the equation because they seem to enjoy having Entomb as a pillar of the format. And here we go again to another cycle.

On the other side, they banned Sowing Mycospawn in the last update, so maybe they will do something about Oops by banning Balustrade Spy, for instance. This would definitely make it a lot weaker.

I don't believe they'll unban anything, particularly if they only ban the cards above, but they could if they decide to take a few more risks this time.

I believe this is an ideal opportunity to shake up the format. We just got a set that shouldn't affect Legacy all that much, there's plenty of time until the Eternal Weekend, and the community wants significant changes, like what they did to Modern a while ago.

Yet... WotC isn't particularly fond of Legacy, so we can only be a little hopeful.

What do you think? Tell us your thoughts in our comment section below.

Thank you for reading, and see you next time!