Pauper's Problems won't be solved with Bans

For a discussion of the subject of this article, we recommend watching the video posted on Good Morning Magic this week in which Gavin Verhey, spokesperson for the Pauper Format Panel, comments on the current health of the format, the reason for not banning anything in the December 16 announcement, and how the main archetypes of the current Metagame convert into wins.

During the video, Gavin asks players between two and three times what they think of the format today, what they would ban or what changes they would make. This proposal is never good: most players of any TCG base their demands and complaints about cards or formats on anecdotal evidence, or, even more commonly, on how it feels to play against that deck - if your list is bad against Kuldotha Red, you won't like Kuldotha Red and will consider it too unfair for the Pauper you want to play.

No matter how we look at a topic - in this case, some decks - it will only be a problem if we want it to be a problem. For years, we saw a now-PFP member advocate that cantrips like Preordain or Ponder should be banned from Pauper to hold back the blue archetypes. We also saw, in the same period, several people advocate for the banning of the Monarch mechanic, which never happened - both cases, in 2024, are relics of the past. The format has changed, and so has the status quo of best strategies.

One of the greatest challenges in Pauper today is differentiating it from what the format has always been: some decks work better than others and define the behavior of the Metagame. Affinity has taken the place that Faeries historically belonged to, Kuldotha Red has pushed the speed of the format to the opposite spectrum of what Tron was pushing, and the only real anomaly in this equation is Broodscale Combo because there is a very fine line between fair and broken in any archetype with an insta-win - Atog was banned for it.

If the PFP's intention is to get Feedback through the video to understand the demands of the format, here are my two cents: Pauper doesn't need bans at this point because the format's problem won't be solved with them.

Pauper has experienced chronic situations in which the format was defined, on average, by three decks: Faeries, Boros Monarch and Tron was the longest from recent history, but not the only one, as strategies like Stompy had their moment in this triad and caused changes such as, for example, the adoption of the red splash in Faeries for Skred and Lightning Bolt.

The triad has changed over the years - mostly with the presence of Faeries - to include decks like Cascade, Ephemerate, Burn, among others as a new expansion came out, and even in broken Metagames it existed: Storm, Affinity and Faeries was one of the most turbulent moments in Pauper history that resembles one of the rare cases in which this logic ceases to apply, like when Turbo Initiative became the absolute best deck.

In the meantime, we had the rise of Affinity: an Aggro-Combo that had a serious Achilles' Heel with Gorilla Shaman and Shenanigans gained a dozen lands that make it absurdly resilient against hate. During that same period, we gained Deadly Dispute, which fit into the list, increased its consistency, and never left.

Today, Affinity has been the protagonist of more bans in Pauper than any other archetype: Atog, Sojourner’s Companion, Disciple of the Vault, All That Glitters, and Cranial Ram were all removed from the format because of it, and most of them served solely to remove the “hit-kill” rather than fix the archetype.

For many years, I was one of the defenders that the problem with Affinity lies in Modern Horizons’ Bridges - and it does, since it removed the deck’s biggest weakness while allowing it to cheat on mana costs like no other archetype - but the other bans did so much to eliminate Affinity’s unfair lines that, at this point, it is the just the most efficient Midrange in the format, with Myr Enforcer being its Tarmogoyf.

It is to Pauper in 2024 what Jund was to Modern back in the past decade and what Delver is to Legacy to this day, including the same chronic problem: if something comes out that makes things too easy or guarantees it a win line outside of combat, it breaks.

And then, we have Kuldotha Red.

Kuldotha Red was effectively born in 2022 with the release of Experimental Synthesizer and solidified with the reprint of Monastery Swiftspear in Double Masters. In part, its place in the Metagame was a blessing because it removed the “Tron risk” from Pauper: now, decks that want to loop spells and lock games with Turbo Fog needed to be faster because spending three or four turns doing nothing and fixing their mana was no longer viable.

Times have changed. Monastery Swiftspear was banned because it made the format too fast, and in exchange, Kuldotha Red gained a powerful one-mana creature package with Goblin Blast-Runner and, more recently, Goblin Tomb Raider, both cards that interact well with the archetype while emulating Goblin Guide or Zurgo Bellstriker without compromise.

So why would banning something from Kuldotha Red be bad?

First, because it is the easiest archetype to respond to among the best in Pauper today, as proven by the fact that it has a lower win rate in Games 2 and 3. Second, it seems irrelevant, but much of the popularity of this deck is due to the fact that it is the "pick and play" of the format. Third, Kuldotha Red holds archetypes against which it would be more boring and more exhausting to play against. And lastly, it puts any non-interactive strategy in check by imposing that the opponent needs to be faster than it.

In the end, Kuldotha Red is the fun police of Pauper today. The acid test that every archetype needs to pass to be competitively viable, but which can be easily overcome in post-sideboard games because there is a huge diversity of possible answers against it, and Pauper would be worse, and perhaps some strategies would not even be viable if it were not among the best decks, holding strategies that promote anti-play patterns.

And then we have the anti-game deck. The Broodscale Combo's position is very sensitive: it came into the format, displaced another best deck (Terror) and stayed there where it developed into Jund variants with Writhing Chrysalis and continues to have one of the highest representation rates in many large-scale Pauper events and Challenges.

In theory, this doesn't justify banning this deck, but being an easy-to-execute two-card combo is a problem. Many Affinity cards have been banned for this same dilemma, and the difference between the two comes down to how well the Broodscale Combo can establish and execute a plan B, or how well its two-card combo fits into other existing shells.

The answer today is "not so well". Even in Jund variants, it doesn't stand out so much in its Midrange plan to the point that it is equally dangerous when compared to the combo, as was the case with Affinity in its bans, but from the moment that this plan proves to be too efficient and/or when the combo plan is so consistent to the point that giving up other proposals is the best choice, it becomes difficult to justify keeping it in the format.

So, why not ban anything now?

From the triad's point of view, no matter what cards you remove from the decks, they will stay on top or be replaced by other archetypes that will form a new triad, which in turn will dictate the rules of how decks are built and will create another Metagame where X works and Y doesn't. It is impossible to escape this maxim because that is how competitive formats work.

Also, despite there being best decks, the state of the Pauper Metagame is diverse, not unlike other states in which Faeries was the regulator. Today, six archetypes make up approximately 50 to 60% of the Pauper Metagame: in addition to the triad, we have Mono Blue Terror, Madness Burn and Gruul Ramp - but the remaining 40% is made up of other archetypes, some like Mono White Aggro, Faeries, Dredge or Black Gardens that can achieve results in Top 8 Challenges and other tournaments.

Strategies like Kuldotha Red are inherently easy to pilot, so they tend to show up in greater numbers in Leagues or Challenges. Affinity, due to its long-standing best deck status, has a very solid player base dedicated to the archetype while its results prove it a reliable strategy for those looking to dedicate themselves to Pauper, and Broodscale Combo is the archetype category that is also very popular with both demographics: the consistent free-win button.

It’s fair to say that there’s a numbers discrepancy problem in Pauper, but it’s not going to be solved by bans. What the format needs, ironically, is more power creep in the right places.

Magic is a strange game. On the one hand, the creativity in card design is almost endless even when we have several Kicker variations, but there are certain effects that apply universally across sets to keep the draft viable, and since these occur in commons, it's possible for the same cycle to repeat itself over and over again because most cards aren't—and shouldn't be—designed with Pauper in mind.

For example, did we need five different versions of Deadly Dispute?

What about cards like Goblin Blast-Runner or Goblin Tomb Raider? Did it seem appropriate for All That Glitters to be a common if we looked at Pauper? Did Kuldotha Red need Clockwork Percussionist to increase its consistency?

The answer to all of these is no. None of these cards were necessary, as they only solidified decks that were already well-established in the Metagame. But these cards weren't intentionally inserted into Pauper; they happen to be suitable options for the sealed environment, and it's up to the PFP to decide whether they're good for the format - Cranial Ram wasn't and the committee wasted no time banning the card.

On the other hand, what about cards like Thraben Charm? Malevolent Rumble? Or maybe Troll of Khazad-dûm? What about the Gates package with Basilisk Gate? Was Novice Inspector a bad addition, even though it's a nearly identical version of Thraben Inspector?

The answer to most of these would probably be no, as they all actively contributed to improving archetypes that are not at the absolute top of the Metagame. Malevolent Rumble, for example, is a powerful glue for Broodscale Combo, Gruul Ramp and Bogles, and yet you will hardly see a player claiming that it is the card that needs to be banned to weaken decks.

So Pauper's solution will not be found in bans, but in bringing in good cards for the right color combinations and/or archetypes. Decks like Elves, Bogles, Heroic, Tron and other archetypes that are less popular today, or even strategies in Tier 1.5 like Mono White Aggro are the archetypes that need the insertion of more powerful cards to match the format's power level, and following the reverse path with bans will only create scenarios whose consequences can be even worse: would players be happier if the Metagame returned to a triad of Blue-Based, Big Mana and Midrange?

It is obvious that waiting for the format to solve itself has a threshold. If the numbers grow too much, the decks become homogenized and the space for other strategies decreases, interventions are necessary to keep the format interesting and fun. Today, despite the complaints on social media, Pauper presents itself as a diverse environment, but one that, like all Magic formats, has its scale of the best strategies with greater share.

This process can take months, or even years - Faeries was the best deck for a decade - and it may not be possible to just wait until it happens. Maybe Elves will never gain the tools to enter Tier 1. Maybe Heroic will never be a competitively viable deck again. Maybe Tron will become a relic of the past.

In this case, Pauper may want PFP's interference to shake up the format a bit, even if it isn't broken. Following the example of Jegantha, the Wellspring in Pioneer, it's possible to introduce changes to Pauper by removing some key cards to increase the diversity of the Metagame.

In this case, if immediate bans were necessary, the most plausible choices would be:

Krark-Clan Shaman generates card advantage while being a cheap, efficient, maindeck-worthy sweeper in the best deck in the format. It's the only way to clear the board for one mana, and it also rewards Affinity just for playing the game.

There are many decks that could be limited by its presence, and Pauper currently has a significant number of sweepers that don't generate positive value with Ichor Wellspring and similar cards and/or that cannot be resorted with Blood Fountain, not to mention its interaction with Toxin Analysis that turns it into a Day of Judgment for two mana.

Deadly Dispute is the most played maindeck card in Pauper and a pillar of both Affinity and Broodscale Combo and a dozen other strategies. Removing it would leave these archetypes in need of useful replacements, and for both, Fanatical Offering is probably the best option. Banning it wouldn't be enough to address the dilemmas of either archetype, as there are too many viable substitutes, but revoking access to the Treasure it generates makes a difference in many games, and Fanatical Offering may not offer the same versatility.

Basking Broodscale is the centerpiece of the Sadistic Glee combo. It doesn't seem necessary to ban it today, but as mentioned above, a two-card combo is on the verge of being too self-sufficient and/or having a backup plan so effective that it forces the opponent too much on both fronts. When either of those two happens, the combo will have to go - and that's a when situation, not an if.

There are two ways to deal with Kuldotha Red. The first option is with Goblin Tomb Raider, the closest thing to a Goblin Guide that Pauper has ever had. The main reason for its ban is that a 2/2 for with Haste is too fast, but the other reason involves the way it punishes some standard answers to this matchup, such as End the Festivities or Shrivel. In this sense, removing it from the deck would make linear answers against Kuldotha Red better.

The other option is Goblin Bushwhacker, which would permanently cut off the explosive potential with Kuldotha Rebirth and other creatures, making it significantly slower.

That's all for today!

If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment!

Thanks for reading!