Legacy: Speculating about Bans

Greetings, my friends! In my last article before going on vacation for a long trip to the end of the world, I decided to talk about that subject that everyone loves to talk about: speculation on bans in Legacy!

There are several reasons that can lead to a banning of a card, but fundamentally they fall into two categories: problematic interactions and Metagame dwarping.

In the first category, we have cards that generate spikes in power that are very difficult to respond to, leading to the emergence of degenerate decks. Recent examples include Underworld Breach, Oko, Thief of Crowns and Wrenn and Six. In the second type, we have cards that enable decks to become tyrants of the format in a way that the Metagame cannot self-correct, leading to situations such as “tech cards” (cards that respond to a specific situation, such as, for example, Pyroblast) migrating from sideboards to maindeck.

Many of the bans in this category aren't even the key card in their decks, but just a way to bring them down to deadly levels. Here we have cards like Arcum’s Astrolabe, Dreadhorde Arcanist and Deathrite Shaman.

But what would this Metagame self-correction be?

There are 2 metrics to analyze the influence of a deck in a given format: Popularity and Effectiveness.

Generally, when a deck is very popular, its effectiveness rates tend to suffer, as having a bigger target on its back makes other players better prepare against it. And similarly, when something new comes out with a high rate of effectiveness, more players jump on that bandwagon and end up negatively affecting its effectiveness due to some factors: not being well adapted to the new deck, too many players adapting to the new threat of the format, a better understanding of how it works and how to play against it.

The problem happens when, even with a huge target on its back, a deck emerges at the same time as the most popular and the most effective. This is an indication that the format hasn't been able to adapt to it and external measures will be needed to balance the Metagame.

Right now, there is such a deck in Legacy. And the format is not self-correcting.

About Initiative

Before getting into the discussion of what to do with Delver, a word about the new Legacy hype: White Initiative decks have taken the format by storm quite effectively, and many players have been questioning whether that would also be the case of any piece of this deck being contemplated with the Banhammer as well.

In my opinion, this is not the case yet. Undercity's ability is quite strong and a nightmare for slower decks, but the archetype is still very recent and unrefined, suffers against the most unfair combos, and has not yet been assimilated by the Metagame.

It is very reminiscent of the situation when 8-Cast came out and had a peak in popularity and many people wanted the world to end. But given the right timing, it was an example of Legacy correcting itself, and today the deck is just one of several viable options there. I believe this must be the same path that Initiative will take.

As I said in the middle article about UR Shredder, the core of Brainstorm, Ponder, Daze, Force of Will and Wasteland have been carrying the top competitor of the format for a long time and through many iterations: Temur, Sultai, Grixis, Jeskai, and currently Izzet, surviving many bans and still prevailing as the most popular and often most effective deck in Legacy.

And we're in that situation again, a Metagame where Pyroblast and Carpet of Flowers have become valid options in the main deck to try and counter the threat.

While not quite as overwhelming in tabletop versions, where card availability and players' attachment to their pet decks play a major role, in Magic Online, where those factors aren't as important, its dominance is undisputed.

In leagues, where you see slightly more casual decks, Delver takes a break, but in big tournaments, the amount of UR Delver in the top 8s is obscene. Wizards did not talk, showed numbers that raised doubts in the community, but the pressure is increasing. Eventually, Legacy will have to go through some changes and something will leave the format.

But what should be banned? I see 3 options:

This one, I believe, is the least likely option, as it affects one of the pillars of the format. The answer to how to deal with the Delver issue depends on what Wizards wants it to be post-ban. And, from what it has shown in previous bans, Wizards wants the deck to remain one of the main archetypes of the format.

But if the goal were to obliterate Delver from existence, the card for which it has no replacement is Daze. The rest of the core can be considered untouchable, as it plays in a myriad of other variants, in addition to the fact that Force of Will is the glue that keeps the format from slipping into myriad degenerate decks like Oops! All Spells and Belcher.

Daze, on the other hand, sees play in few decks other than Delver. There is an argument that its ban would lead to an uncontrolled increase in combos, but with Force of Will and Force of Negation, in addition to the 1-mana discard options like Thoughtseize and Inquisition of Kozilek, the format could adapt.

On the other hand, if it follows its trend, Wizards should just remove some of Delver's new toys, the deck loses some of its consistency, but the core cards will keep it strong, and soon we're back to the same problem. We've already seen this story with Dreadhorde Arcanist, with Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer, with Lurrus of the Dream-Den. I usually say that even if Wizards woke up and decided to ban all creatures present in the current deck lists, tomorrow a new version with other 1-drops would rise from the ashes and the deck would remain strong, although weakened.

But back to the options on the table, the two clearest targets are Expressive Iteration and Murktide Regent. Both give a different angle to the deck and can temporarily shake the format.

Prior to Strixhaven, Delver was fundamentally a Tempo deck, with virtually no Card Advantage mechanics, seeking to smother the opponent under Dazes and Wastelands just enough for one of its threats to finish the game, with one or two Lightning Bolt in the face for safety.

Then came Expressive Iteration which, at a cost albeit heavy — 2 mana, gives you a cooldown option for a second wave of attacks. An effective increase in the number of cards the deck has at its disposal for value, often coupled with a Mystic Sanctuary. If Iteration takes the ban, the deck can adapt with Predict and more Mishra’s Bauble if it wants to continue with the Card Advantage route, or simply go back to being the full Tempo strategy it once was.

The other fellow in the dock is Murktide Regent, yet another of MH2's endless bombs. Before it, the most common thing was to see Delver lists focused on low-cost threats in addition to its namesake card, precisely to gain value with its disruption. A 7/7 or 8/8 coming into play for 2 mana means that now the strategy can suddenly metamorphose into a strategy that ends the game in one or two turns, no longer having to keep pinching with Delver of Secrets for several turns.

Its departure would open some paths for the deck: going back to 3 colors and resurrecting the Gurmag Angler, digging up the whale Ethereal Forager, look for the path in a 2-drop that appears now and then as Ledger Shredder or Third Path Iconoclast.

Either way, the deck survives, but loses one of its smoothest paths to victory.

As I see, these are the main options at the table to reduce the dominance of the deck in the format. Some players like to include Dragon's Rage Channeler as an option, but I find it quite unlikely.

I, personally, would like to see the format shakeup that Daze's departure would cause, but if I had to bet my meager money on any of the above alternatives, I believe the ban would be on Expressive Iteration, as Wizards has sought to rein in Card Advantage mechanisms, as seen in the Dreadhorde Arcanist or Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer bans. Or maybe nothing happens and Delver has a few more months of unrestricted domain!

With that, I end my participation in 2022. Merry Christmas, happy New Year and see you in 2023!