Standard: World Championship 30 Metagame Analysis

The World Championship is approaching. Today, the biggest competitive event of the year in Magic: The Gathering begins, and players will compete for the $1,000,000 prize pool and the chance to be immortalized on a Magic card. The formats will be Duskmourn Draft and Standard, with Swiss rounds on the first two days of the event and the cut for the Top 8 taking place on Sunday.

The event's Metagame is also set, with some well-established archetypes at the top, such as Gruul Prowess, as well as some surprises and new additions, such as the variants of Temur Prowess with Valley Floodcaller and Enduring Vitality in addition to Dimir Demons, whose versions seem to be divided between the Midrange and those that bet on combos such as Unstoppable Slasher with Bloodletter of Aclazotz.

With the data available today - decklists will only be posted in the fourth round of the event - let's discuss deck choices, most-played cards, and how the event's new features may affect Standard in the coming weeks!

First, let's look at the numbers, courtesy of Wizards of the Coast and Frank Karsten.

Aside from some under-the-radar surprises like Temur Prowess, the World Championship scenario is almost as expected. Some surprises include the complete absence of Four Color Overlords from the tournament, which implies that Domain Ramp is the best go big of the format today.

From the predictions I made earlier in the week about which strategies we should keep an eye on, some notable absences involve, in addition to Overlords, Azorius Enchantments and the Caretaker’s Talent variants - one thing that all three archetypes have in common is their reliance on enchantments to function, which can make them more vulnerable when many lists adopt standard answers against this type of permanent in the maindeck like Pawpatch Formation, Destroy Evil or Exorcise, suffering from “accidental hate” since they prove essential to respond to the rise of Unholy Annex // Ritual Chamber and Archfiend of the Dross.

Another important point in this Metagame is how Dimir Midrange and its variants are more popular than Golgari, signaling a greater need to deal with the stack and a more flexible and comprehensive card selection. This bet can pay off especially due to the absence of archetypes that are very reliant on enchantments that would suffer more against Tranquil Frillback and Glissa Sunslayer.

Gruul Prowess - 17.7%

As expected, Gruul Prowess was the “safe choice” and most played archetype in the format. Most other archetypes will thrive or fail based on how well they respond to a fast, consistent clock that can win games as early as turn four - and being the "best deck" also means getting the most hate at a high-level tournament like a Pro Tour or Worlds, putting Prowess in a position where it will need to show its resilience against the Metagame.

Apparently, only three players have opted to run Leyline of Resonance, with the majority prioritizing Manifold Mouse. This event will be the final test of the recently banned in Best of One card - if this minority succeeds and makes it to the Top 8, the number of players using Leylines in their lists will certainly increase.

Dimir Midrange - 14.2%

Dimir Midrange was the “answer deck” choice for the event. Its flexibility is more comprehensive in Game 1 than Golgari Midrange while it loses some points in post-sideboard games against a few distinct categories of permanents - especially enchantments, which it only deals with counterspells.

The choice, however, has the potential to pay off greatly because the most enchantment-dependent archetypes do not make up the majority of archetypes, and Enduring Curiosity can maintain card advantage parity against Up the Beanstalk or Unholy Annex // Ritual Chamber. The challenge for Dimir Midrange, however, will be to prove that it is the best choice for the attrition archetype in , a slot that competes with the new Dimir Demons.

Azorius Oculus - 11.5%

From a strategy that lost a lot with the rotation to the third most played archetype at Worlds, Azorius Oculus is a good example of how all it takes is one addition for an archetype that was on the edge of Tier 2 or 3 to reach the top. Its mix of cheap spells with threats that demand immediate response put it in a very favorable position, mainly due to the added value that Abhorrent Oculus offers every turn it is on the board.

Much of Azorius Oculus' success will depend on its resilience against archetypes with a lot of removal and how much graveyard hate was dedicated in this tournament. With 126 copies of Ghost Vacuum, I dare say that the answer is “enough”. Still, it could surprise and prove that just having a way to deal with its recursive element isn't enough to have an easy matchup.

Domain Ramp 11.5%

Domain Ramp is always on the edge between being a nearly broken deck and being a solid option that loses against Aggro and Tempo if you don't dedicate enough slots against it. With Gruul Prowess as the biggest competitor and Temur Prowess being a surprise, it will be interesting to see how Standard's best late game will perform at Worlds.

The selection of this archetype, however, shows that Atraxa, Grand Unifier is still the best payoff option for big mana in Standard today, and there is no Overlord in the format that can compare to a Phyrexian Angel that draws five cards when it comes into play and survives almost any combat phase.

Temur Prowess - 8%

The new challenger to the format, Temur Prowess (or should we call it Temur Otters?) uses the ability of Valley Floodcaller and its interaction with Enduring Vitality to trigger multiple instances of Prowess in a turn, since you can use Floodcaller and the Otter token from Stormchaser’s Talent to generate mana and cast spells to untap it, creating its own version of Jeskai Ascendancy - or would it be a Jeskai Ascendancy on steroids?

Of all the archetypes at Worlds, this is the one that Pioneer players should pay the most attention to: if it works in Standard, it can work in the neighboring format without major problems.

Dimir Demons - 8%

Dimir Demons is the deck I'm most curious about. Firstly because the engine of Unholy Annex with Archfiend of the Dross has grown exponentially in Standard and Pioneer to the point that some lists in both formats have given up on Sheoldred, the Apocalypse in favor of a 6/6 with Flying that rewards their removal - and the risk of losing the game in a few turns seems worth it.

Another major feature about this archetype is that it seems to be the most popular choice for the Unstoppable Slasher and Bloodletter of Aclazotz combo, a combination that is one build and a proper Metagame away from being one of the main combos in Standard.

There are important concessions to be made to include Bloodletter, as paying for it and for Three Steps Ahead consistently is a challenge even with the current mana base, but if any of these lists make Top 8, Standard will face another test: whether it is possible to have a healthy two-card combo in the Metagame, or whether it will face its own Splinter Twin situation.

It's worth mentioning that other versions of the combo also appear with a copy in the Golgari and Orzhov colors, but I believe that Dimir is the most unexpected combination among them and, consequently, the one with the best chance of reaching the Top 8.

Golgari Midrange - 8%

Golgari Midrange was the most reliable pick in Standard for months, but it has been competing for space with Dimir Midrange in the last month. One of the reasons is that the priority of the games has been changing and counterspells have become more relevant. The other is that Enduring Curiosity is an absurd card in a scenario where even Midranges are very creature-based.

The addition of green guarantees an extensive Sideboard against permanents and some problematic strategies with Tear Asunder and Nissa, Ascended Animist, in addition to including Glissa Sunslayer and Mosswood Dreadknight in the maindeck, which can guarantee more longevity to the archetype in mirrors. However, there are other strategies in the Metagame today that require more interaction in the stack and, consequently, make Dimir Midrange the most reliable choice for most.

Jeskai Convoke - 6%

Jeskai Convoke was born out of Boros' need to deal with sweepers - its main weakness in the Metagame. What started as a splash for Protect the Negotiators soon grew into a full-fledged third-color addition, with Spyglass Siren in the maindeck and Negate and Tishana's Tidebinder in the sideboard.

Its success will depend on how much players respect this matchup: the more cheap sweepers, the harder it is for a deck whose card advantage is based on creatures to establish itself. Still, it is a good predator against greedier archetypes.

Golgari Ramp - 4.4%

Another surprise of the event, the Golgari Ramp is an unknown because we still don't know its lists or its victory conditions well. Apparently, it's an Up the Beanstalk deck aiming to ramp Deadly Cover-Up with Overlord of the Hauntwoods, but what other cards will be its payoffs?

From what we know so far, it looks like a classic version of The Rock, who at the time used Pernicious Deed to control the board and Spiritmonger to win the game. This tactic has been replicated in other Standard formats, with the most recent involving Casualties of War in the Guilds of Ravnica season and Seasons Past in Shadows Over Innistrad.

Tokens - 2.7%

Tokens has a less relevant share of the Metagame and its matchup against Ramp and stacks of Goodstuff have pushed it away from the top of Standard. It will need to be good enough against the rest of the event while avoiding Domain Ramp.

My biggest curiosity is how it will adapt to the new archetypes: there is not enough sample size to say whether its matchup against Dimir Demons or Temur Prowess/Otters is relevant enough to put it back on the radar.

Given the numbers we have access to regarding the most played cards from Duskmourn and Bloomburrow, as well as the sample of the Metagame so far, these are the cards we should keep an eye on as the tournament progresses.

Archfiend of the Dross

If you don't already have Archfiend of the Dross, you should. From a crazy combo card in Pioneer to a staple in Rakdos Midrange and Vampires, the Phyrexian demon has now transformed into one of the most powerful creatures in both formats and has even knocked Sheoldred, the Apocalypse off the throne as the best four-mana black creature in the format.

Its interaction with Unholy Annex // Ritual Chamber will only grow, especially if variants with it succeed and reach the Top 8 at Worlds.

Otters

If Temur Otters explode at Worlds and go straight to the competitive Metagame, it’s natural to imagine that players will be using it in next year’s RCQ seasons. And even without competitive support, Pioneer could also find space for the new competitive Jeskai Ascendancy. Stormsplitter deserves a mention in this regard because it interacts well with this gameplan and can win games quickly while casting spells with Valley Floodcaller and Enduring Vitality.

Enduring Vitality

Speaking of which, Enduring Vitality should see more play in the coming weeks, both in and out of Standard. Its success, however, will depend on how well Temur Otters perform at the event - and it doesn't seem like a bad bet, as nine players have opted for it for the most important tournament of their careers.

Silent Hallcreeper

Silent Hallcreeper started popping up in the Azorius Enchantments maindeck a few weeks ago. At Worlds, most of its slots are in the Sideboard, and I wonder what strategies and matchups it can fit into. Cards like it tend to show their potential in the hands of experienced players in high-level tournaments, so it's worth keeping an eye on.

Doomsday Excruciator

At least four players are betting on Doomsday Excruciator in their list, possibly alongside the combo with Jace, the Perfected Mind to win the game. Its mana value is worrying and makes the options even more limited than Bloodletter of Aclazotz, but players might have found ways to break the Inverter of Truth at home.

That's all for today!

If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment!

Thanks for reading!