Standard: Analyzing the Bans and the format's uncertain future

I would like to open this article by commenting on how, for the first time in almost fifteen years since my first contact with Magic, it is strange to talk about Standard without considering it the main competitive format of the game, given that it has always been the pillar off Magic's tournament structure for so long that its biggest draw to store players, or more casual players, was being able to play with and against the decks that commonly appeared on camera at major events, and there was a certain excitement and elegance in seeing such strategies being played live, in front of you, or even in your own hands.

However, this is the first time I feel that Standard is not the most focused or important format than other tabletop formats, and will probably lose some space in the digital environment as well while we are dealing with a recurring Covid crisis.

Magic Arena brought a great opportunity to play with the decks you saw in the hands of professionals without having to run after the cards and, despite the highly predatory economy of the platform, we must admit that it is much more practical to get the cards for Standard there (assuming you keep grinding long enough or spend $100 every three months) than needing to invest in every instant staple that comes out in each set and having to adapt your deck (or even build another deck) as per the Metagame changes, and Standard is precisely the format where the environment tends to change practically every week.

In many ways, it was the best format to play in Magic Arena, and also the most rewarding way to get something in the game, with events like the Arena Open or independent organizations collaborating, so players could get physical or digital rewards for their effort and commitment to the platform, especially during the pandemic.

However, with Alchemy arriving as a digital-exclusive format and the company's notorious commitment to making it competitive (such as the next Set Championship being in Alchemy instead of Standard, in addition to the Qualifiers), the question that remains is whether players have enough reason to still care about Standard.

Currently, on the digital platform, there are more players interested in Standard than in Alchemy and this is reflected in the engagement numbers of each format, especially due to the terrible policy of adjustments and economy the game has (you do not receive any refund for nerfs, and also there is no system to turn your useless cards into resources to get more cards), but there is a much greater force on the platform that wants to make Arena a unique way to play Magic with a focus on the dynamics that only a digital card game can provide, and eventually, its audience will have to adapt to the changes (and the company will have to learn from their mistakes) if they wish to compete playing Magic Arena because that's the route we're going.

Which brings us back to the question: In these pandemic times and with an alternative format with rebalances being promoted by Wizards, is there any reason to care about Standard today?

In an ideal world, Standard should be the competitive format for those who want to play on tabletop, but with a pandemic that lasts for almost two years and does not allow large agglomerations and the organization of gigantic events, the format is relegated, in the in-person game, to being essentially a Friday Night Magic event in local stores, making it extremely unpopular due to its rotating nature, something that usually manages to be its attraction, for always giving a renovation to the Metagame and new decks played, and detriment, as eternal formats like Pioneer and Modern are more interesting for local communities as they do not require constant investment due to the rotation.

This is not to say, ever, that I undervalue Standard. On the contrary, it is and has always been the main pillar of competitive Magic and the commercial factors of each new release. It's what motivates the competitive player to buy the product to keep up to date when playing the tournaments; it's what motivates the casual player to want to set up that Ninja tribal deck to play in FNM just for fun; it's what encourages stores to open boxes to sell singles, and it's probably one of the pillars that continues to keep the game exciting for everyone for so long.

However, with all the changes that have taken place in the game and with the pandemic preventing the format from prevailing in the collective imagination and public recognition because its nature is completely conflicting with the period we are living in, it becomes strange to speak of Standard as a huge competitive format right now, and it's even stranger to consider the importance that the bans that occurred this week really have for tabletop and Magic Arena players, especially at a time when competitive Magic, Organized Play, among other things don't seem to be a priority.

In particular, I feel that competitive Magic is in a turbulent and very messy landscape, with a frighteningly uncertain future and without many prospects of what can happen, for better or for worse.

It's hard to predict what the game's next steps will be in such a confusing period, and we also don't have a direct message from those responsible for its health about what their goals are with Magic. It's up to none other than Wizards of the Coast itself to define what Magic: The Gathering is apart from a product to be sold by Hasbro.

Will the game return to a competitive and, who knows, professional structure in the coming years when the century's worth health crisis is under control? Does the plan to bring Magic into the world of eSports still exist, or was it dropped midstream because there are crucial flaws in Magic Arena (hello, spectator mode and predatory economy!) ?

Will Magic be managed to the point of having a structure of major events promoted by Wizards in the future similar to MagicFests, Pro Tour and the like, or will this part also be left in the hands of the community?

And where does Standard fit into all this? What can be done to make a rotating format meaningful at a time when the main reasons to play it, such as the opportunity to participate in important events like PTQs, simply don't exist in a tabletop structure, while its presence in Magic Arena is being notoriously toned down to make room for Alchemy?

With Alchemy, what is the purpose for the format now? How is it possible to put it in evidence in a scenario where in-person events are still scarce and players are not willing to have “the best Standard deck” just to play at FNM?

Unfortunately, I haven't had the answer to these and other questions in my head for a while. As someone who's been following Magic and its tournaments for quite some time, the last few years are the first time I've had a strange feeling that the game is changing direction towards a path where I really can't say or guess where it is headed.

Speaking of which, this week we received the sad news that StarCityGames will be dropping their focus on competitive content, and this news was particularly shocking to me as I have spent the last ten or so years following articles and content from various Magic portals before I started writing my own articles, the first of which was an SCG article written by Brad Nelson, and it's unfortunate to see this end for a website I've followed for so long.

Although I never dreamed too much about the competitive scene and Professional Play, and today I see myself as a spectator of the changes in the game who really enjoys tournament content, I am and will be eternally grateful for every content creator, writer and player who is or has been producing great readings from a competitive perspective during these years, as much of what I learned and now share through my perception was thanks to years of reading articles and researching related subjects, and I wish the best opportunities for each of the content creators, writers and players who will no longer be producing for SCG.

That said, I think we can only accept our position on this board as spectators of history and hope for the best, regardless of the direction or objective to be proposed for Magic: The Gathering in the coming years, while we may also reevaluate our relationship with a game that we enjoy in the most diverse ways: As a hobby, to gather friends, or to improve your skills and compete in something you feel good participating in.

In general, it seems to me that the bans were well accepted by the Standard community, rekindled part of the interest that Magic Arena players have in the format and also collaborates in diversifying the Metagame to give opportunity for several other strategies while the new best decks are not defined.

I think we can all agree that Alrund's Epiphany was unhealthy for Standard, as it was primarily responsible for polarizing and creating a three-deck Metagame.

Izzet Epiphany and its variants, such as Grixis, was a very efficient Combo-Control in the hands of skilled players, which combined the spell with Galvanic Iteration to produce a sequence of extra turns, where you could use them to establish a massive advantage, or even win the game with tokens produced by Alrund's Epiphany and with Hall of Storm Giants.

I see many people arguing that the extra-turn ban is of little use because Alchemist's Gambit is present in the format, but Epiphany had a number of qualities that other extra-turn spells lack, such as the ability to dodge discard spells such as Duress through Foretell, in addition to creating two power on the board.

Seeing Alrund's Epiphany as "just" an extra turn is a significant mistake when evaluating this card's power, and it was closer to being an "extra-turn Mulldrifter", functioning as a means to get more resources, blockers and wincondition at the same rate, and there are no other cards in Standard currently that can produce the same result.

However, Alrund's Epiphany + Galvanic Iteration wouldn't be as effective if the blue base weren't as good at handling diverse situations with efficient answers, and the more flexible spell the archetype had to dealing with any situation was Divide By Zero.

For just three mana, Divide by Zero allowed a player to respond to the most diverse and complex situations, whether in play or on the stack, which was critical for delaying cards with immediate impact, such as Esika's Chariot, Goldspan Dragon or Hullbreaker Horror, while allowing you to fetch from your sideboard exactly what you needed for each situation: A wincondition with Mascot Exhibition, or securing your land drop with Environmental Sciences, or more cards in hand with Teachings of the Archaics.

In addition, it's pretty clear that Wizards intends, with these latest bans, to improve the viability of strategies that look for a good investment of mana in their plays, such as Midrange and Ramp decks that play Wrenn and Seven, and cards like Divide by Zero are, by their very nature, great ways to significantly delay the turns and sequencing of Midrange decks.

Last but not least, Faceless Haven was banned to mitigate the way Aggro decks are built into the format, given that manland practically forces aggressive archetypes to be monocolored by offering a 4/3 manland for three snow mana.

Although this ban is aimed at both Mono-White and Mono-Green, I would assume Mono-White will suffer significantly more from this ban because Faceless Haven was such an important part of its resilience, and the replacement manland, Cave of the Frost Dragon, lacks the necessary elements to justify its use in very aggressive lists, but will likely see play as there are no better options.

On the other hand, the absence of Faceless Haven in Standard will make players look to explore new options outside the mono-color axis for their aggressive decks, and the bans collaborate so that players can worry less about having to play under, and can focus more on extending the match in exchange for value.

In short, in addition to improving the diversity of the format, the bans in Standard were intended to promote a better environment for Midrange decks to exist.

Izzet Control & Izzet Dragons

Since Izzet Epiphany no longer exists for obvious reasons (again, don't try to put Alchemist's Gambit on the list and pretend everything is fine, it's not worth it), let's talk about the options left for the Izzet decks that, honestly, are good:

The first is that the deck can easily transition to Izzet Dragons, as Goldspan Dragon remains in the format, and the foundation of this archetype is solid enough to work very well without Alrund's Epiphany. It may be that running four copies Goldspan Dragon to speed up the clock makes it justifiable to use one or two copies of Alchemist's Gambit to win the game out of nowhere, as a sort of “combo-kill”, but I wouldn't bet that high on that possibility yet.

Additionally, Goldspan Dragon allows the Izzet player to speed up the plan for the best thing you can be doing in a blue deck from now on:

If you really want to play Izzet Control, with Lier, Disciple of the Drowned and other effects commonly played in Izzet Epiphany, the best thing you can do is cast Hullbreaker Horror as soon as possible.

Among the Blue-Based Control, I think Izzet or Grixis are the best options to play with the seven mana wincondition than Dimir or Esper lists because they are archetypes that allow you to sequence The Celestus or Prismari Command, Goldspan Dragon and Hullbreaker Horror, while still having access to Unexpected Windfall to speed up the cast of what will likely be your main wincondition.

And did I mention that one of the most efficient ways of dealing with it was by answering it with Divide by Zero, which is now banned?

So, I think that regardless of which way you decide to go, it's very likely that if you're going to keep your Izzet deck, you will need Hullbreaker Horror and Goldspan Dragon.

Mono-White Aggro

I don't think Mono-White Aggro is really worth it with these changes made in the Metagame, especially if the format really steers towards the rise of Midrange decks, making archetypes like Mono-White need to adapt to the Metagame and place more attrition and value elements, rather than focusing on playing under.

Because of this, I'm guessing we'll see more versions of Selesnya or Naya Aggro popping up in the coming weeks, depending on the Metagame's need to play low or maintain resilience in longer games.

Mono-Green Aggro

I can't think losing Faceless Haven is so bad for Mono-Green as it keeps Esika's Chariot and improves its manabase to cast Werewolf Pack Leader and Old-Growth Troll with greater consistency.

Of course, it misses out on a great manland, but it's possible that Lair of the Hydra will do a good job of replacing it. Mono-Green can hold its own as one of the format's top decks in the Aggro category, depending on how well it plays against Midrange, which can be a challenge for a monocolored list.

One point that bothered me in this banlist was why they kept Esika's Chariot in the format, given that the artifact is one of the most problematic cards for easily establishing a snowball effect in a few turns, in addition to create immediate value as soon as it enters the battlefield, virtually making a direct answer like Abrade less useful.

My guess is that they left Chariot in the format because it is essentially a more powerful engine for Midrange than it is for Aggro, as they would be better able to capitalize on its long-term effects through, for example, tokens created by Wrenn and Seven.

Midrange, especially Green-Based

As I've already mentioned, the absence of Divide By Zero is great news for decks to try to capitalize on as much of their mana for the most impactful permanents as possible.

Good examples of this category are the aforementioned Wrenn and Seven and Esika's Chariot, but they are not limited to them: Using all your resources to cast cards ranging from Goldspan Dragon to Showdown of the Skalds becomes much more rewarding when you know your opponent isn't going to respond with a Tempo play that will still offer them card advantage.

Also, without Alrund's Epiphany + Galvanic Iteration, Midrange decks have the necessary elements to play the long game against Control, managing to establish parity of resources and value across the most diverse permanents, such as Planeswalkers and enchantments or specific creatures.

Among the possibilities, I suppose that Green-Based Midrange, such as Naya or Jund, stand out from the others because they have powerful combinations to speed up their game, such as Jaspera Sentinel + Magda, Brazen Outlaw or Prosperous Innkeeper.

Ramp

At the Season's start, one archetype that stood out significantly were decks that tried to speed up maximum mana to cast bombs like Wrenn and Seven and Storm the Festival, and I'm sure they can be very efficient in catching the Midranges that should emerge and maintaining its space as the best proactive Late-Game of the format.

Storm the Festival is a powerful card and very capable of creating a value storm if cast repeatedly, and we're likely to see more varied versions of the archetype in the coming weeks.

Two color Aggro

With the format moving away from a Metagame where you either play under Alrund's Epiphany, or you lose, it's likely that slower Aggro decks with greater reach in late-game like Vampires, Temur, or Gruul can get better results.

Orzhov Control

As long as aggressive decks exist in the format, Orzhov Control will be a valid option which manages to grind out games while accumulating card advantage.

The question that remains, however, is whether Orzhov will be able to have space to play well against decks that seek to play “over” it, such as new variants of Blue-Based Control, or Storm the Festival decks.

Aside from obvious inclusions like Esika's Chariot, Goldspan Dragon and Wrenn and Seven, there are a few cards that, I think, will be highlighted in the weeks leading up to Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty.

Lier, Disciple of the Drowned is a powerful element for Control decks, and this will likely be even more evident without Alrund's Epiphany, as the card is, in short, a Past in Flames coupled to a 3/4 body, and its permanence on the battlefield for a single turn can completely turn the game around, giving ten or more spell options in the late game for its controller to use over the course of turns.

With Esika's Chariot being intact in the format and likely becoming the mainstay of the format's Midrange and Aggro, it's very likely that the best answer we'll have for some time is Prismari Command, for its ability to handle with Esika's Chariot and with a token in a single cards, and it's not a completely dead option against other archetypes, as it can always be used to create a Treasure token, or to remove useless cards from your hand.

We'll probably have a lot more room to explore Storm the Festival now, a card that's pretty much a Collected Company for 5 mana value permanents with Flashback.

I've already delved a bit into how Ramp decks should become the ultimate late-game of the format, and it's possible that we'll see many variants of this archetype or heavier Midranges using it from now on.

If the format is really going to be Midrange-oriented in the next few weeks, Edgar, Charmed Groom is a great option to use in your lists, as it's a permanent that generates a lot of value on the board with a single resource, and is a difficult to deal with threat.

In addition to Orzhov Control, it wouldn't be a surprise if other decks started using it to have a great tool in games geared towards resource exchanges.

I end my article here, still feeling uncertain about what Standard's future will be in the structure of Magic's competitive formats and events in the coming years, and hoping that we can have more clarification on what the plans are for the game in the coming months or years.

Thanks for reading!