Metagame: Standard Might become a One-Deck Format

Another week later, another major Standard event presents important signals about the format's current state and how players have adapted.

Izzet Cauldron, which has dominated the format's competitive Metagame since rotation, reached another milestone, rising from 30% representation on day one of Spotlight Series: Orlando to 54% on day two, almost twice as many decks, and the second-best conversion of the entire event among the top competitors.

Furthermore, six of the eight decks in the Top 8 were Izzet Cauldron, and the results also spread to the Top 16, with ten copies, and the Top 32, where 21 of the 32 players ran Cauldron.

These numbers raise another red flag. At this point, Izzet Cauldron has already become the "target deck" for Standard, and it's only natural that the most popular archetype will have the highest share on the first day of the event and maintain a similar percentage or even decrease it on the second day. After all, everyone is ready to face it, and the deck's survival depends on how well it deals with its opponents' maindeck and sideboard choices. It's natural that these strategies will eventually decline in numbers, even if they occupy some slots in the Top 8.

Cauldron trailed only two decks in terms of conversion to Day 2: Mono Red Aggro and Temur Battlecrier. Both with significantly smaller sample sizes. Mono Red Aggro was also the only archetype to make the Top 8 and the second most played in the Top 16 and 32 of the event.

With these results, it's worth looking at the decisions and changes the archetype proposed during the event, since, given the circumstances, it appears that the most plausible solution for the current Metagame lies partially within it.

The reason for Mono Red Aggro's success in a Cauldron environment is due to the mix of inherent elements of a broken Metagame combined with the number of solutions available in red today: when there's no solution to a troublesome deck, the best way to deal with it tends to be to ignore it and win faster. Regardless of the version, Mono Red Aggro is the fastest deck in Standard today.

This situation isn't much different from what we saw last season before the wave of bans that removed Cori-Steel Cutter, Heartfire Hero, Monstrous Rage, and Abuelo's Awakening from the format, where Mono Red Mice won Pro Tour Final Fantasy by doing the same thing as current lists: being faster and maindecking cards that punish the dominant archetype.

Players have tried many ways to play Mono Red after the bans, and some variations are more successful than others in each circumstance. For example, a few weeks ago, the Dragons version, with more permanent power on the board and Dragons' interaction with Sarkhan, Dragon Ascendant, seemed the most effective for the Standard metagame. However, the Spotlight Series points in a different direction: you need to play fast and do everything possible to punish your opponent's actions.

Razorkin Needlehead seems like the ideal answer to Cauldron if you're playing an aggressive, damage-heavy deck like Mono Red. Izzet is an archetype that capitalizes on the interplay between draws and discards to put needed cards into the graveyard while growing creatures with Proft's Eidetic Memory, a key plan for both combo execution and a more fair playstyle. In these circumstances, Needlehead becomes an immediate threat because its damage will snowball over time even if the opponent chooses not to draw more cards and play more reactively.

This extra damage each turn makes Burnout Bashtronaut a real threat. Start Your Engines! tracks the player's damage taken each turn, so if we assume it attacks on the second turn and is followed by a Razorkin Needlehead, its controller will already have three speed counters on the third turn, and once it reaches Max Speed, Bashtronaut becomes a respectable threat in the mid-game by being able to increase its own power while having double strike.

This way, not only does Mono Red pressure the opponent in combat, but it also inhibits their ability to perform multiple actions in a turn, not unlike what we saw in Pro Tour Final Fantasy, where players ran Magebane Lizard in the maindeck for the same purpose.

Ryan Eliason's list adds an extra layer to these punishing effects with Scalding Viper and Ojer Axonil, Deepest Might.

Scalding Viper also punishes the Izzet Cauldron for constantly performing actions since almost no card in most lists outside Quantum Riddler has a mana value higher than three, and Ryan is banking on Ojer Axonil as a late-game threat in slots usually held by cards like Sunspine Lynx, since four damage for every draw, spell cast, or combat trigger from Hired Claw and/or damage trigger from Screaming Nemesis adds up quickly. Not to mention turning Burst Lightning into four damage for just .

There's no such thing as a bad match if you win on the third turn. Red Aggro versions with Leyline of Resonance lack consistency but gain significantly in speed, and the Standard Metagame currently favors, due to the Izzet Cauldron's ability to generate absurd amounts of value with the extra mana it has, a game plan aimed at ignoring the opponent and going for the win.

Except for the copies of Dreadmaw's Ire—in the list primarily to emulate Monstrous Rage and not for the maindeck hate—this version focuses solely on having creatures in play and pump spells to increase power and deal lethal damage as quickly as possible. This puts the Izzet Cauldron in a tough spot in a way that no other deck in the format can, meaning that any sequencing mistake and/or misreading of its plays will likely mean defeat.

Despite losing ground to faster versions, Mono Red Dragons remains a solid choice due to its ability to go off by sequencing Sarkhan, Dragon Ascendant into Nova Hellkite with Warp on turn three, and Nova Hellkite from exile on turn four using the token created by Sarkhan himself.

What has changed is the need to forgo less consistent interactions: Magda, the Hoardmaster paved the way for Razorkin Needlehead and Taurean Mauler became less relevant as the Metagame narrowed, opening up space for Tersa Lightshatter.

It wouldn't be surprising if, in the coming weeks, we see Ojer Axonil, Deepest Might replace Sunspine Lynx in the maindeck due to the archetype's ease of casting this card on turn three and then attacking with Hired Claw.

As long as the format remains in this status quo, it's clear that the best non-mirror frontline against Izzet Cauldron lies in Mono Red decks, and there are some lessons from this that can be transferred to other archetypes, such as how to play targeted hate without sacrificing your main game plan.

Two cards that could get more attention right now are Clarion Conqueror, which permanently locks Soul Cauldron and Vivi Ornitier while also working against Kaito, Bane of Nightmares, Elspeth, Storm Slayer, and a dozen other permanents in the format today, and Agatha's Soul Cauldron.

Your deck can also extract value from Agatha's Soul Cauldron which, besides providing decent maindeck hate, has relevant interactions with several cards that interact with +1/+1 counters, such as Pawpatch Recruit, Sentinel of the Nameless City, Ouroboroid, and others. Adding Cauldron as an interactive card with your maindeck changes the complexion of the matchup and significantly increases the potential risk of the Izzet Cauldron in executing its "combo."

The numbers, however, speak for themselves: despite having a higher conversion rate, only seven Mono Reds made the Top 32 in the Spotlight Series compared to 21 copies of Izzet Cauldron. There is competition between these two archetypes, but Red Aggro puts in much more effort and needs to adapt too much to achieve even 1/3 of the results Cauldron achieved. It is pretty clear which one among them is a better deck right now.

Temur Battlecrier was the other archetype with a positive conversion rate on Day 2, despite having a considerably smaller sample size than Izzet Cauldron or even Mono Red. The archetype evolved to combine Devastating Onslaught with Railway Brawler to create, with an Onslaught for X = 2, two copies of the card with twenty power and Trample/Haste (the original Brawler checks both, adding five +1/+1 counters to each, then the copies check each other, adding ten +1/+1 counters to each copy).

This version follows the same mold of interacting little and trying to outrace Izzet Cauldron, but it has a wide range of sideboard answers for Games 2 and 3. Despite being primarily a combo deck, it's as effective with a fair game plan as other archetypes in post-sideboard matches.

Azorius Control may have missed the Top 8 due to a loss to Cauldron in the last round, but it also proves to have the necessary tools to adapt to a Metagame where there's a clear deck to beat and an Aggro archetype that preys on it. If there's a rock-paper relationship between Cauldron and Mono Red, perhaps Azorius Control can take over the role of Scissors.

We haven't reached Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis or Wilderness Reclamation levels of urgency yet, but at this point it's clear that Izzet Cauldron has no solution with the current Standard card pool, much less without direct intervention.

The Spotlight Series has shown that the best way to play against Izzet Cauldron is playing Izzet Cauldron. Otherwise, the archetype's overall quality can only be countered by playing under, which itself already shows signs of a troublesome Metagame—when Eldrazi Winter occurred, Affinity was the only non-Eldrazi deck to make the Top 8 at Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch because it was the fastest archetype in Modern at the time.

Now, we face a similar dilemma. The best way to prevent Cauldron's explosive turns is to use graveyard hate in the maindeck, and the most effective maindeck hate in Standard today is Agatha's Soul Cauldron in an archetype that runs it effectively, and no other strategy currently plays it as well as the deck it's intended to counter. If this is the conclusion, what we'll see in the coming weeks will be considerable growth for the Izzet Cauldron.

We are once again presented with a dilemma: Standard needs an intervention, but the next Banned and Restricted announcement happens on November 24, a little over three months from today. During this period, the biggest Magic events of the season will take place in the Modern format: Pro Tour Edge of Eternities at the end of September and the Regional Championships of the current season.

For Standard, we have the Regional Championship Qualifiers, which take place over the next few weeks, and the decision to impose an emergency ban depends solely on how essential Wizards of the Coast considers RCQs to be to the game's competitive integrity—the definition of whether these events are truly relevant or whether the company considers them merely as "glorified local tournaments."

Given the circumstances of the post-Modern Horizons 3 season, where Nadu, Winged Wisdom was polarizing the Metagame and presenting an unfun play pattern, yet Wizards waited months to ban the card, I believe RCQs are seen as something of lesser importance, or at least something that Wizards don't believe interferes too much with the competitive ecosystem.

The reality we can't ignore is that competitive players play whatever they have to play. They build decks to try to qualify in Standard, Pioneer, and Modern, and if an RCQ season were held in a format like Legacy or Vintage, they would find a way to borrow a deck or buy one to play in tournaments in pursuit of their dream of participating in a Pro Tour.

While the Standard metagame may worsen in the coming weeks, the most that can happen is for these players to decide between three options: play with the best deck (Izzet Cauldron) and risk losing a lot of money in November due to bans, play with what can win against the best deck (Mono Red) and risk losing to the rest, or play with what they have the most experience with and risk losing to both.

Therefore, it's unlikely that Wizards of the Coast will issue a preemptive and emergency ban, especially during Spider-Man's preview season. It's convenient for Magic as a product to believe that a new expansion can change things—it probably won't, and ideally we would have a more assertive ban window that follows the post-release of new sets—and starting with Pro Tour Edge, there will be less time until the next update.

As mentioned in other articles, my personal belief is that Wizards shouldn't issue an emergency ban but rather maintain the stipulated date of November 24th. However, this date needs to come with very strict announcements about changes to the way Standard is interpreted and the intervention and banning windows: If we have six Standard sets being released, we should expect six Banned and Restricted windows throughout the year. If Magic is changing the way it releases products, it should also rethink how it manages its competitive landscape instead of waiting and seeing for three to six months.

The fear of overreacting to Standard and breaking the format's trust again is notable, and Izzet Cauldron is a very expensive deck compared to other archetypes in the format, and it's desirable to ensure players have investment security for these cases—it's part of the combination of reasons I propose waiting until November—but no Magic player is naive enough to not know when their deck is broken.

It's part of Magic that a competitive player likes to expand their advantages with deck choice, but it's also unfair for them to look at their banned cards and then act like they're the victim of the situation when that choice involves the archetype everyone knows is a problem. Situations like Nadu, Izzet Cauldron, Hogaak, or the previous versions of Boros Energy differ from other interventions that have more questionable statistics or interpretations when a card is banned: the numbers themselves present the problem.

The combination of Vivi Ornitier with Agatha's Soul Cauldron is likely one of the last remnants of the transition from the two-year rotation to the three-year rotation. The two cards, theoretically, weren't designed to exist in the same Standard, and it's safe to say this might be an unfortunate accident caused by changes in the format's structure.

Vivi, however, is a very strong card and is perhaps a remnant of a change in direction when Final Fantasy shifted its focus from Modern to Standard. As mentioned in previous articles, free mana will always be a problem in Magic, and it's a mistake for the design team to still try to flirt with this concept. It's already proven that generating mana quickly with little effort will be a problem regardless of how many restrictions are imposed.

Another lesson when it comes to design is that, while Commander is naturally considered when creating cards—especially for Universes Beyond—their implications in 1v1 constructed require extra attention at these times, and the product they're included in should also be considered.

Nadu, Winged Wisdom was changed at the last minute due to Commander and was in the Modern Horizons 3 core set despite there being a preconstructed deck in the set's product line ready to receive it as a complementary legend. Vivi, while powerful and interactive with the Black Mage mechanics in Final Fantasy, could easily have the same ability as Urabrask for and and be an interesting commander, or it could retain the same design and be exclusive to a Final Fantasy IX precon, where its competitive implications would be limited to Legacy and Vintage, where the power level bar is much higher.

If the design team wants to have the creative freedom to make more exciting Commander cards, then we consequently need to have a space in each set—again, especially in Universes Beyond—where these cards can fit without causing as much damage to Standard as Vivi is doing because a certain interaction wasn't considered.

Furthermore, it's also clear that the Banned and Restricted window doesn't keep up with the speed at which Standard and other competitive formats are evolving. While it's necessary to give a scenario time to resolve before the desperate cries for bans begin at every opportunity, the period between July and November will be very long. And while it's Wizards' duty to maintain the integrity and avoid emergency bans for the sake of the guarantees the card game seeks to offer its audience, it's also the company's role to update itself and act accordingly.

We've had this before; it's not difficult to replicate a Banned and Restricted update—even with a No Changes—for every new Magic release that enters Standard. We're talking about six Banned and Restricted announcements this year, which isn't much compared to the sudden, unannounced announcements everyone hated, but it also doesn't leave competitive scenarios in limbo for almost half a year.

If the Cauldron period were from rotation to early October, a week or two after Spider-Man's release, we might have less trouble waiting for the next Banned and Restricted update, even with the new set still a month away. After all, that would be enough time for the Metagame to try to adapt, see if the added cards make any difference, and make the necessary decisions for each format.

As it is now, however, Wizards' attempts to make Standard more stable and the mainline competitive format are being hindered by the rules they have set upon themselves.

At least Izzet Cauldron matches are fun, interactive, and interesting to watch, right?

Thanks for reading!